.Electric vehicle shipments are expected to increase by 17% by 2025
.By 2030, electric vehicles will account for over 50% of all vehicle models sold by car manufacturers
.Some car factories will be closed or sold to other car manufacturers
Gartner releases important trends in the automotive industry for 2025. At present, the automotive industry is facing pressure from emissions regulation and strong growth in China.
Pedro Pacheco, Vice President of Research at Gartner, said, "Software and electrification will remain the two main drivers driving the transformation of the automotive industry. However, in 2025, car manufacturers will face uncertainty in emissions regulations and increasingly tense trade relations between China and the West, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) market
Due to the constantly changing political landscape, the United States and the European Union (EU) are restarting discussions on automotive emission regulations, which has brought uncertainty to the automotive industry. As a result, some OEMs may be unwilling to place electric vehicles at the strategic core.
Gartner predicts that by 2025, the shipment of electric vehicles (including buses, cars, trucks, and heavy-duty trucks) will increase by 17%. By 2030, electric vehicles will account for over 50% of all vehicle models sold by car manufacturers.
Geopolitics slows down the popularity of CASE
Due to China's leading position in the field of CASE (Connected, Autonomous Driving, Software and Electrification) for electric vehicles, the trade barriers set by the United States and the European Union against Chinese electric vehicles will slow down the popularization process of CASE in these regions.
Bill Ray, distinguished vice president of Gartner, said, "Drone manufacturers and Chinese telecommunications companies have already felt the impact of international sanctions, and the robotics industry may be the next affected area. Due to the widespread adoption of renewable intelligent software, remotely accessible cameras, and the integration of data collection into automotive business models, geopolitics will lead to market differentiation, thereby slowing down the process of CASE adoption
Chinese car manufacturers have gained competitive advantages in software and electrification through vertical integration and efficient development, and are able to provide the market with advanced and affordable electric vehicle products. However, increasing trade barriers may weaken this advantage, limiting their ability to offer consumers a variety of competitive electric vehicle products.
Traditional OEM expands cooperation with Chinese OEM in software
Traditional OEMs have been striving to improve their internal software capabilities. Therefore, many OEMs have reached agreements with Chinese OEMs to purchase automotive electrical/electronic (E/E) architectures, which increases their dependence on the software and hardware capabilities of Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers.
Overcapacity drives OEMs to close factories
Over the years, overcapacity has been a challenge faced by many automotive factories in Europe and North America. Recently, the increase in import tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles by the United States and the European Union may exacerbate this issue. In response, Chinese automobile manufacturers may set up factories in Europe, the United States, Morocco, Türkiye and other free trade partner countries to maintain the price competitiveness of their products.
Gartner predicts that this situation is likely to result in the closure or sale of multiple low utilization car factories to other car manufacturers, and may trigger a domino effect leading to supplier factory closures. This will redefine the automotive manufacturing landscape of the United States and Europe, making low-cost countries the main hubs for automotive production capacity and supply chains.
Gartner customers can learn more information in the 'Important Trends in the Automotive Industry in 2025'.
Regarding Gartner
Gartner (New York Stock Exchange code: IT provides practical and objective insights for enterprise organizations, helping them make wise decisions on the most critical priorities and achieve outstanding performance. For more information, please visit http://www.gartner.com/cn .
